Comparative-Quantitative Analysis of Factors Affecting Civil War Onset in Societies

Author

Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology and Management, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Neyshabur, Neyshabur, Iran,

10.22080/ssi.2025.28365.2246

Abstract

Objectives: Civil war, as a form of intra-state conflict, has consistently been a subject of scientific and empirical inquiry. Given the consequentialness of civil war on diverse societal domains, the present research aims to examine the factors influencing the onset of civil war within societies. Methods: Employing a panel data logistic regression model with random effects, this study encompasses 3,802 country-years spanning 1973 to 2005. Results: Findings indicate that a society's population size has a significant positive impact on the risk of subsequent civil war. Increasing population size from its minimum to maximum observed values elevates the in-sample predicted probability of civil war onset from 12% to 48%. Increasing the prior levels of economic growth exhibits a mitigating effect on the risk of subsequent civil war. Furthermore, the results indicate that anocracies, or semi-democracies, are more susceptible to civil war onset compared to full democracies or dictatorships. Moreover, a society's prior level of cultural diversity exerts a positive influence on the probability of subsequent civil war. Conclusion: The findings align with the existing literature on civil war, emphasizing the critical role of both social and cultural dimensions (soft aspects) and economic and political factors (hard aspects) in shaping the likelihood of civil war onset. Consequently, a multifaceted strategy that concurrently fosters economic growth, strengthens democratic institutions, and ensures equitable distribution of resources across society and among different cultural (ethno-religious) groups is crucial for effectively mitigating the risk of civil war within societies.

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References

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Sociology of Social Institutions
Volume 12, Issue 25
August 2025
Pages 113-153

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