بررسی تطبیقی-کمی عوامل مؤثر بر آغاز جنگ مدنی در جوامع

نوع مقاله : علمی پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار، گروه جامعه‌شناسی و مدیریت، دانشکدۀ ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه نیشابور، نیشابور، ایران،

10.22080/ssi.2025.28365.2246

چکیده

اهداف: جنگ مدنی، به‌مثابه یکی از صورت‌های تضادهای درون کشوری، همواره محمل بررسی‌های علمی و تجربی بوده است. عطف به پرپیامدی جنگ مدنی برای ابعاد گوناگون حیات جامعه، هدف پژوهش حاضر، بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر آغاز جنگ مدنی در جوامع بوده است. روش مطالعه: روش پژوهش حاضر، رگرسیون لجستیک مبتنی بر داده‌های پانلی، با مدل اثرات تصادفی، مشتمل بر 3802 کشور-سال و در بازۀ زمانی 1973 تا 2005 بوده است. یافته‌ها: یافته‌ها نشان داده است که اندازۀ جمعیت جوامع، تأثیر مثبت و معنی‌داری بر خطر آغاز جنگ مدنی متعاقب جوامع دارد. تغییر اندازۀ جمعیت از کمترین میزان آن به بیشترین میزان آن در نمونه، احتمال پیش‌بینی‌شدۀ درون نمونه‌ای آغاز جنگ مدنی را از 12% به 48% افزایش می‌دهد. همچنین، افزایش سطح رشد اقتصادی پیشین جوامع، اثر کاهنده‌ای را بر خطر آغاز جنگ مدنی متعاقب در جوامع نشان می‌دهد. همچنین، یافته‌ها نشان داد که شبه دموکراسی‌ها، یا آنوکراسی‌ها، در مقایسه با دموکراسی‌ها یا دیکتاتوری‌های تمام‌عیار، بیشتر در معرض آغاز جنگ مدنی هستند. همچنین، وضعیت تنوع فرهنگی پیشین در جوامع، تأثیر مثبتی بر احتمال آغاز جنگ مدنی متعاقب در جوامع دارد. نتیجه-گیری: یافته‌های پژوهش، همخوان با ادبیات شکل‌گرفته در حوزۀ جنگ مدنی، بر نقش کلیدی ابعاد اجتماعی و فرهنگی (وجوه نرم) و نیز ابعاد اقتصادی و سیاسی (وجوه سخت)، در شکل‌دهی احتمال آغاز جنگ مدنی تأکید می‌ورزد. درنهایت اتخاذ یک استراتژی چندوجهی که هم‌زمان رشد اقتصادی را تسریع کند، نهادهای دموکراتیک را تقویت کند و توزیع متوازن منابع در میان جمعیت و گروه‌های متفاوت فرهنگی (قومی-مذهبی) را تضمین کند، برای کاهش مؤثر احتمال آغاز جنگ‌های مدنی در جوامع ضروری است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparative-Quantitative Analysis of Factors Affecting Civil War Onset in Societies

نویسنده [English]

  • Ali Salar
Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology and Management, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Neyshabur, Neyshabur, Iran,
چکیده [English]

Objectives: Civil war, as a form of intra-state conflict, has consistently been a subject of scientific and empirical inquiry. Given the consequentialness of civil war on diverse societal domains, the present research aims to examine the factors influencing the onset of civil war within societies. Methods: Employing a panel data logistic regression model with random effects, this study encompasses 3,802 country-years spanning 1973 to 2005. Results: Findings indicate that a society's population size has a significant positive impact on the risk of subsequent civil war. Increasing population size from its minimum to maximum observed values elevates the in-sample predicted probability of civil war onset from 12% to 48%. Increasing the prior levels of economic growth exhibits a mitigating effect on the risk of subsequent civil war. Furthermore, the results indicate that anocracies, or semi-democracies, are more susceptible to civil war onset compared to full democracies or dictatorships. Moreover, a society's prior level of cultural diversity exerts a positive influence on the probability of subsequent civil war. Conclusion: The findings align with the existing literature on civil war, emphasizing the critical role of both social and cultural dimensions (soft aspects) and economic and political factors (hard aspects) in shaping the likelihood of civil war onset. Consequently, a multifaceted strategy that concurrently fosters economic growth, strengthens democratic institutions, and ensures equitable distribution of resources across society and among different cultural (ethno-religious) groups is crucial for effectively mitigating the risk of civil war within societies.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Anocracy
  • Civil war onset
  • Cultural diversity
  • Economic growth
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